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Throughout the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister was notable as the sole European Union leader to support the Republican candidate. This support was expected, considering the Hungarian leader's championing of divisive notions including great replacement ideology and the crackdowns on media freedom. Commentators point out that Mr Orbán more or less pioneered the Maga movement, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding him as Trump's forerunner.

Political Favors Before Hungarian Elections

Last week, with crucial Hungarian elections merely half a year off, Donald Trump returned some political favors. With Orbán seeks a fifth straight win governing a country he describes as an non-liberal system, his political group lags in surveys. A visit to the US capital resulted in beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought highly beneficial electoral advantages.

Waivers and Fiscal Safeguards

Despite earlier lecturing European nations on the imperative to eliminate all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and warning of sanctions against states persisting to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump approved to allow a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the US government also promised to provide a “financial shield” to Budapest if it faces any upcoming challenges, given that Brussels is still blocking substantial EU funds to Hungary on grounds of violations of legal standards.

The details of this arrangement are unclear. However Donald Trump recently demonstrated his readiness to help out political friends as the US granted a $20 billion in emergency funds to the Argentine leader, Javier Milei. Even though the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting still was a successful endeavor.

European Apprehensions and Geopolitical Stakes

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention likely highlighted the strategic importance of the coming election, prior to which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, holds a clear edge in opinion data. European leaders have learned not to anticipate principled consistency from the US government, and have grown used to the American leader's attempts to undermine the bloc. Yet the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase US gas and nuclear energy – openly contradicts the bloc's aims to eliminate imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the largest EU buyers of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have contributed well over £10bn to the Russian military campaign.
• Meanwhile, Budapest has often employed the blocking vote to impede moves in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As Europe strives to create a coordinated approach for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any later diplomatic discussions, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has avoided promising a drastic turnaround on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while highlighting the necessity for the country to finally behave as a positive member state. After enduring so many years of trolling, EU officials can only remain patient. Mr Orbán’s indifference to basic EU values, like the upholding of minority rights and the autonomy of civic groups, has long been a source of shame for the European Union. His persistent opposition on the Ukraine issue could harm its long-term safety.